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The January 2010 edition of the International Association of Risk and Compliance Professionals (IARCP) newsletter
 
Dear Member,
 
I want to extend my best wishes for a safe, prosperous and blessed year to all. I do hope that you will transform the difficulties around into opportunities.
 
The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2009

This is comprehensive legislation to overhaul regulations in the financial sector.

It would establish a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency to regulate products like home mortgages, car loans and credit cards, give the Treasury Department new authority to place non-bank financial firms, like insurance companies into receivership and regulate the over-the-counter derivatives market.

The House Financial Services Committee has responded to the US financial crisis by crafting a comprehensive set of measures that will change financial regulations and hold Wall Street accountable. Once signed into law, this package of reforms will work together to address the myriad causes – from predatory lending to unregulated derivatives – that led to last year’s meltdown.
 


The Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act includes the following major provisions:

Consumer Protections:
 
Creates the Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA), a new, independent federal agency solely devoted to protecting Americans from unfair and abusive financial products and services.

Financial Stability Council:
 
Creates an inter-agency oversight council that will identify and regulate financial firms that are so large, interconnected, or risky that their collapse would put the entire financial system at risk.
 
These systemically risky firms will be subject to heightened oversight, standards, and regulation.

Dissolution Authority and Ending “Too Big to Fail”:
 
Establishes an orderly process for dismantling large, failing financial institutions like AIG or Lehman Brothers in a way that ends bailouts, protects taxpayers, and prevents contagion to the rest of the financial system.

Executive Compensation:
 
Gives shareholders a “say on pay” – an advisory vote on pay practices including executive compensation and golden parachutes.
 
It also enables regulators to ban inappropriate or imprudently risky compensation practices, and it requires financial firms to disclose any compensation structures that include incentive-based elements.

Investor Protections:
 
Strengthens the SEC’s powers so that it can better protect investors and regulate the securities markets.
 
It responds to the failures to detect the Madoff and Stanford Financial frauds by ordering a study of the entire securities industry that will identify needed reforms and force the SEC and other entities to further improve investor protection.

Regulation of Derivatives:
 
Regulates, for the first time ever, the over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives marketplace.
 
Under the bill, all standardized swap transactions between dealers and “major swap participants” would have to be cleared and traded on an exchange or electronic platform.
 
The bill defines a major swap participant as anyone that maintains a substantial net position in swaps, exclusive of hedging for
commercial risk, or whose positions create such significant exposure to others that it requires monitoring.

Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending:
 
Would incorporate the tough mortgage reform and anti-predatory lending bill the House passed earlier this year.

The legislation outlaws many of the egregious industry practices that marked the subprime lending boom, and it would ensure that mortgage lenders make loans that benefit the consumer.
 
It would establish a simple standard for all home loans: institutions must ensure that borrowers can repay the loans they are sold.
 
Reform of Credit Rating Agencies:
 
Addresses the role that credit rating agencies played in the economic crisis, and takes strong steps to reduce conflicts of interest,
reduce market reliance on credit rating agencies, and impose a liability standard on the agencies.

Hedge Fund, Private Equity and Private Pools of Capital Registration:
 
Fills a regulatory hole that allows hedge funds and their advisors to escape any and all regulation.
 
This bill requires almost all advisers to private pools of capital to register with the SEC, and they will be subject to systemic risk regulation by the Financial Stability regulator.

Office of Insurance:
 
Creates a Federal Insurance Office that will monitor all aspects of the insurance industry, including identifying issues or gaps in the regulation of insurers that could contribute to a systemic crisis and undermine the entire financial system.


Sarbanes Oxley Update
 
Today we will discuss one important report about the implementation of Auditing Standards No 5. - from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB).
 
The PCAOB Release No. 2009-006
REPORT ON THE FIRST-YEAR IMPLEMENTATION OF AUDITING STANDARD NO. 5

This report describes the most common or noteworthy observations that were derived from inspections conducted during 2008 regarding registered audit firms' first year implementation of the Board's standard governing integrated audits, Auditing
Standard No. 5,
An Audit of Internal Control Over Financial Reporting That Is Integrated with An Audit of Financial Statements ("AS No. 5").

Background
On June 12, 2007, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board ("PCAOB"or "the Board") adopted AS No. 5 as part of the Board's plan to improve implementation of the provisions of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 ("the Act") relating to audits of
internal control over financial reporting ("ICFR").
 
The Board had four basic objectives in issuing AS No. 5:
 
• Focusing auditors on the most important matters in the audit of ICFR,

• Eliminating unnecessary audit procedures,

• Making the audit scalable to the size and complexity of the business, and

• Simplifying the text of the predecessor standard on audits of ICFR.

AS No. 5 became effective for audits for fiscal years ended on or after November 15, 2007.

The PCAOB's 2008 inspections of the eight largest domestic annually inspected registered public accounting firms
[Specifically, BDO Seidman, LLP; Crowe Horwath LLP; Deloitte & Touche LLP; Ernst & Young LLP; Grant Thornton LLP; KPMG LLP; McGladrey & Pullen, LLP; and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP]
included the review of over 250 audits of ICFR that the firms had conducted during 2007 and 2008.
 
Those years were, for auditors and preparers of financial statements, a period of learning and transition, as auditors responded to the issuance of AS No. 5 and preparers of financial statements received guidance from the Securities and Exchange Commission to facilitate their assessment of ICFR.

The 2008 inspections of ICFR audits were focused on whether auditors were effectively transitioning to AS No. 5. Accordingly, the 2008 inspections process included several procedures designed to monitor and improve the quality of the firms' implementation of AS No. 5.
 
During inspection fieldwork, the inspections staff reviewed aspects of the firms' application of AS No. 5 to selected integrated audits.
 
As described below, the inspectors selected several significant aspects of AS No. 5, and considered whether, in the engagements reviewed, the auditors had applied those aspects appropriately in the process they used to reach their conclusions.
 
The inspections were not designed to evaluate the design or effectiveness of the issuers' controls or to draw conclusions regarding the quality of managements' assessments of those controls.

Engagements were selected without regard to whether the ICFR audits resulted in adverse or unqualified opinions and without regard to the number or extent of internal control deficiencies identified by the engagement team during the audit.
 
During the fieldwork, the inspection teams communicated to the specific engagement teams whether the inspectors had observed that the teams had implemented effectively the aspects of AS No. 5 that had been reviewed, or whether, and in what respects, their implementation needed improvement.
 
Inspections leadership summarized the observations for each firm and discussed them with the firm's leadership periodically.
 


Observations on the First-Year Implementation of AS No. 5

In order to comply with the provisions of AS No. 5, the auditor should use a "top down" approach to the audit of ICFR to select the controls to test.
 
This approach begins with understanding the overall risks to internal control over financial reporting, including the risk of fraud.
 
The auditor then focuses on identifying entity-level controls, and then moves to identifying significant accounts and disclosures and their relevant assertions, understanding likely sources of misstatement, and selecting controls to test.

Risk assessment underlies the entire AS No. 5 audit process, including the identification of significant accounts and disclosures and relevant assertions, the selection of controls to test, and the determination of the audit evidence necessary for a given control.
 
The auditor should focus more of his or her attention on the areas of highest risk.
 
Also, in planning and performing the audit of ICFR, the auditor should evaluate the extent to which he or she will use the work of others.

In light of these concepts, the inspectors' review of the firms' implementation of AS No. 5 focused on the following areas:

• Risk Assessment,

• Risk of Fraud,

• Using the Work of Others,

• Entity-Level Controls,

• Nature, Timing, and Extent of Controls Testing, and

• Evaluating and Communicating Deficiencies.


The inspectors' most common or noteworthy observations, including descriptions of certain of the instances in which the inspectors observed that the auditors' transition to AS No. 5 was particularly effective or where it was less than effective, are described below.
 
The inspectors' observations varied both across and within the firms.
 
In each of the areas that inspectors reviewed, inspectors observed instances of inappropriate application of the standard.
 
In general, the areas where inappropriate application was most frequently observed were risk assessment, the evaluation of entity-level controls, and the nature, timing, and extent of the controls testing.
 
Although the observations described in this report were derived from the performance of various engagement teams at certain firms – who constitute a subset of the auditors who performed integrated audits in 2007 and early 2008 – the Board believes that the observations described in this report can benefit auditors generally, whether they are experienced in performing integrated audits or are performing their first such audits

Risk Assessment

In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, the inspectors evaluated whether auditors adequately assessed risk, including when determining significant accounts and disclosures and relevant assertions, selecting controls to test, and
determining the extent of audit evidence necessary for a given control.
 
In the majority of engagements reviewed, the inspectors did not identify deficiencies in the auditors' assessment of risk.
 
In some instances, the inspectors observed that the auditors appropriately modified the nature, timing, and extent of their tests of controls where they had assessed the related risk as lower.

The inspectors, however, observed other instances where the auditors failed to adequately assess risk in certain relevant aspects of the audit.
 
These instances included the failure to
 
(i) identify certain components of an account or certain locations in a multi-location environment that presented different risks of material misstatement of the financial statements than other components of the same account or other locations, respectively,
 
(ii) evaluate both the qualitative and quantitative factors when determining whether to perform tests of controls at a location,
 
(iii) identify all relevant assertions, and

(iv) consider the effects of control deficiencies identified during the audit (including deficiencies in pervasive controls such as information technology general controls) on the risk assessment.
 


Risk of Fraud

In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, inspectors evaluated whether the auditors applied their considerations of the risk of fraud throughout the audit, identified controls that addressed the assessed risk of fraud, and adequately evaluated the control environment and the period-end financial reporting process.
 
In the majority of engagements reviewed, the inspectors did not identify noteworthy deficiencies in the auditors' assessments of fraud risks and their consideration of the results of those assessments when performing the audit of ICFR.
 
Inspectors observed certain instances in which auditors were particularly effective in identifying and testing companies' controls that address fraud risk, including the risk of management override.

For example, inspectors observed instances where auditors focused more of their attention on audit areas or locations that they had assessed as more susceptible to material misstatement due to fraud, or where auditors had involved firm personnel with
special skills and knowledge regarding fraud to assist them in their fraud risk assessment and controls evaluation.

There were instances, however, where the nature, timing, and extent of auditors' tests of controls were not sufficiently responsive to an identified fraud risk because auditors either failed to alter the extent of testing in areas of greater risk, or they failed to identify and test compensating controls when the controls identified and tested did not completely address the identified risk.
 
The inspectors also observed instances where auditors either did not evaluate all the relevant processes of the company's period-end financial reporting process or did not appropriately test the design or operating effectiveness of controls to address the risk of management override.
 


Using the Work of Others

AS No. 5 provides that the auditor may use the work of others to reduce his or her own work, but the extent to which the auditor does so should depend on the risk associated with the controls being tested, as well as on the competence and objectivity
of the individuals performing the work.
 
In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, the inspectors observed that auditors generally used the work of others in a
manner that was related to their assessments of the degree of risk associated with the controls being tested, particularly in lower-risk areas.
 
Similarly, the auditors' use of the work of others in the majority of instances reviewed was consistent with the auditors'
assessment of the competence and objectivity of those individuals.
 
The inspectors observed certain instances where, consistent with AS No. 5, the auditors used the work of company personnel other than internal auditors, when they determined that those performing the work on behalf of management were sufficiently competent and objective.

The inspectors also identified several instances that presented further opportunities for the auditors to use the work of others when the assessed level of risk was lower, including when testing certain system reports and application controls.
 
The inspectors observed other instances, though, where the extent of the auditor's use of the work of others to reduce the auditor's own work was greater than was appropriate under AS No. 5 considering the level of risk associated with the control being tested (e.g., in the area of controls over journal entries, which generally would be considered higher risk because of the risk of management override or other risk of fraud).

In certain instances, the auditors performed few or no procedures to assess the competence of the others relative to the task being performed, or they did not adequately assess the objectivity of the others, particularly where the work was performed by company personnel other than internal auditors.
 
In addition, the inspectors observed numerous instances where the extent of the auditors' retesting of the work of others was seemingly unrelated to the risks involved (e.g., a uniform approach to retesting of 20 percent of the controls tested).
 


Entity-Level Controls

The auditor's evaluation of entity-level controls is important to the auditor's ability to appropriately tailor the audit by identifying and testing the most important controls and, when appropriate, reducing the testing of controls at the process level.
 
The standard requires the auditor to test those entity-level controls that are important to the auditor's conclusion about whether the company has effective ICFR.
 
In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, the inspectors observed significant variance in the effectiveness of the auditors' efforts to identify and test entity-level controls and to use the results of those tests to tailor the audit.
 
In certain of the engagements reviewed, the auditors were effective in identifying and testing entity-level controls that appeared to be designed and operating at a level of precision sufficient to prevent or detect on a timely basis misstatements to one or more relevant assertions, which the auditors determined either eliminated or reduced the need to test additional controls related to those assertions.

In certain other situations, however, the inspectors observed that the auditors' work in the area could have been more effective.
 
For example, in some instances, auditors did not evaluate entity-level controls beyond those associated with the control
environment and the period-end financial reporting process.
 
(Inspectors were told in certain cases that the auditors did not evaluate other entity-level controls because the issuer had not done so.)
 
Some auditors identified entity-level controls that appeared to be designed to operate with a high degree of precision, but failed to obtain sufficient audit evidence of their operating effectiveness.
 
There also were instances where the auditors identified and tested entity-level controls and found them to be designed and
operating with a high degree of precision, but did not alter their tests of process-level controls in response to that assessment.
 
There also were situations where auditors inappropriately reduced their testing of process-level controls based on reliance on entity-level controls.
 
In certain of these instances, the auditors failed to consider the precision with which the entity-level control addressed a relevant financial statement assertion.
 
In other instances, the auditors determined that the entity-level control was not operating at a level of precision sufficient to address the risk related to a relevant financial statement assertion, yet they nonetheless reduced the testing of the process-level controls for the relevant assertion.
 


Nature, Timing, and Extent of Controls Testing

The auditor should select controls for testing that are important to the auditor's conclusion about whether the issuer's controls sufficiently address the assessed risk of misstatement to each relevant assertion.
 
The amount of audit evidence necessary to persuade the auditor that a control is operating effectively depends upon the risk
associated with the control.
 
In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, the inspectors evaluated whether the auditors focused their testing on important controls, determined the amount and type of evidence necessary based on the risk associated with those controls, and designed and executed appropriate control tests to obtain assurance that the controls operated effectively.
 
In the majority of engagements reviewed, the inspectors did not identify deficiencies in these areas.
 
The inspectors noted that, in some engagements, the auditors used prior years' knowledge, consistent with AS No. 5 when determining the nature, timing, and extent of tests of controls for the current year.

Opportunities for improvement also were observed.
 
For example, in certain cases, the auditors did not consider the assessed level of risk when selecting controls to be tested, or the controls selected were not designed to address the risk of misstatement to the relevant assertion(s).
 
The inspectors also observed situations where auditors failed to test a relevant control appropriately or, in some cases, at all.

For example, inspectors observed instances where the auditors' testing of controls over financially significant applications was dependent on appropriate segregation of duties, but the auditors did not test to determine whether appropriate segregation of duties existed.
 
Similarly, in some instances, the auditors tested certain controls without testing the system-generated data on which the tested controls depended; the auditors did not test controls over applications that processed financially significant transactions,
including important manual spreadsheets; or the auditors observed evidence of review and approval controls (e.g. management sign-off evidencing review and approval) without testing the design or operating effectiveness of management's controls.
 
In some instances, the auditors did not obtain service auditors' reports related to controls at outside service organizations, or the auditors failed to perform procedures related to the necessary user controls identified in the service auditors' reports.

Inspectors also observed instances where the evidence gathered by the auditor was insufficient to support a conclusion that the controls were operating effectively, yet the audit team relied on the supposed effectiveness of those controls to reduce the
scope of other audit procedures.
 
For example, inspectors noted instances where the operating effectiveness of higher-risk controls was tested solely through inquiry and observation, which are tests that ordinarily produce less audit evidence than other tests, such as inspection of relevant documentation or re-performance of a control.
 
In other instances, auditors did not test the completeness of the population from which items were selected for testing. Inspectors also observed instances where the extent of audit procedures was similar for both lower- and higher-risk controls.
 


Evaluation of Deficiencies

The auditor must evaluate the severity of each control deficiency that comes to his or her attention to determine whether the deficiencies individually, or in combination, are material weaknesses as of the date of management's assessment.
 
The severity of a control deficiency depends on whether there is a reasonable possibility that a company's controls will fail to prevent or detect a misstatement and the magnitude of the potential misstatement.
 
AS No. 5 includes examples of risk factors that could affect the possibility that a company's controls would fail to prevent or detect a misstatement.

Also, in evaluating whether control deficiencies are a material weakness, the auditor should evaluate the effect of compensating controls, including whether they operate at a level of precision that would prevent or detect a misstatement that could be material.

In the selected areas of the engagements reviewed, inspectors found that auditors generally considered both applicable quantitative and qualitative factors when assessing the severity of control deficiencies.
 
Similarly, in those areas of the engagements reviewed, inspectors observed that when the auditors considered compensating controls to have a mitigating effect, the auditors had generally identified compensating controls that appeared to operate at a level of precision to prevent or detect a misstatement that could be material, and had tested the controls sufficiently.

Inspectors observed instances where auditors appropriately modified the nature, timing, and extent of their audit procedures in response to having determined that certain controls were ineffective.

Inspectors observed other instances, however, where auditors inappropriately based their conclusions about the severity of control deficiencies solely on the materiality of the identified errors in the financial statements.
 
Also, some auditors failed to consider relevant risk factors when evaluating the severity of identified control deficiencies.
 
In addition, there were instances where the auditors did not consider whether certain control deficiencies identified through using the work of others, in combination with other identified control deficiencies, constituted a material weakness in
controls.
 
In certain instances, the compensating controls that the auditors identified and tested were not sufficiently precise or did not operate effectively to mitigate the risks associated with the identified deficiencies.
 
In addition, the inspectors observed that certain auditors' required communications of identified control deficiencies to
management or the audit committee were incomplete.

In addition, in an integrated audit, the auditor is required to evaluate the effect of the findings of the substantive procedures on the auditors' conclusions about the effectiveness of ICFR.
 
In some instances, the inspectors observed that auditors did not consider the possible effects of detected errors in the financial statements on the effectiveness of controls.

Basel ii Update

Breaking News:
The Basel Committee has announced consultative proposals to strengthen the resilience of the banking sector

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has approved for consultation a package of proposals to strengthen global capital and liquidity regulations with the goal of promoting a more resilient banking sector.
 
Along with the measures taken by the Committee in July 2009 to strengthen the Basel II Framework, the proposals announced are part of the Committee's comprehensive response to address the lessons of the crisis related to the regulation, supervision and risk management of global banks.

These reforms carry forward the 7 September 2009 mandate of the Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee.
 
The reform programme has also been endorsed by the Financial Stability Board and by the G20 leaders at their Pittsburgh Summit.

The Committee's consultative documents cover the following key areas:

Raising the quality, consistency and transparency of the capital base.
This will ensure that the banking system is in a better position to absorb losses on both a going concern and a gone concern basis.
In addition to raising the quality of the Tier 1 capital base, the Committee is also harmonising the other elements of the capital structure.

Strengthening the risk coverage of the capital framework.
In addition to the trading book and securitisation reforms announced in July 2009, the Committee is proposing to strengthen the capital requirements for counterparty credit risk exposures arising from derivatives, repos and securities financing activities.
 
The strengthened counterparty capital requirements will also increase incentives to move OTC derivative exposures to central counterparties and exchanges.
 
The Committee will also promote further convergence in the measurement, management and supervision of operational risk.

Introducing a leverage ratio as a supplementary measure to the Basel II risk-based framework with a view to migrating to a Pillar 1 treatment based on appropriate review and calibration.
The leverage ratio will help contain the build-up of excessive leverage in the banking system, and introduce additional safeguards against model risk and measurement error.
 
To ensure comparability, the details of the leverage ratio will be harmonised internationally, fully adjusting for any remaining differences in accounting.

Introducing a series of measures to promote the build-up of capital buffers in good times that can be drawn upon in periods of stress.
A countercyclical capital framework will contribute to a more stable banking system, which will help dampen, instead of amplify, economic and financial shocks.
 
In addition, the Committee is promoting more forward-looking provisioning based on expected losses, which captures actual losses more transparently and is also less procyclical than the current "incurred loss" provisioning model.

Introducing a global minimum liquidity standard for internationally active banks that includes a 30-day liquidity coverage ratio requirement underpinned by a longer-term structural liquidity ratio.
The framework also includes a common set of monitoring metrics to assist supervisors in identifying and analysing liquidity risk trends at both the bank and system wide level.
 
These standards and monitoring metrics complement the Committee's Principles for sound liquidity risk management and supervision issued in September 2008.

The Committee is also reviewing the need for additional capital, liquidity or other supervisory measures to reduce the externalities created by systemically important institutions.

The Committee is mindful of the need to introduce these measures in a manner that raises the resilience of the banking sector over the longer term, while avoiding negative effects on bank lending activity that could impair the economic recovery.
 
To this end, the Committee is initiating a comprehensive impact assessment of the capital and liquidity standards proposed in the consultative documents.
 
In a number of proposals, the Committee is still considering different options, which will be included in the impact assessment.
 
The impact assessment will be carried out in the first half of 2010.
 
On the basis of this assessment, the Committee will then review the regulatory minimum level of capital and the reforms proposed in this document to arrive at an appropriately calibrated total level and quality of capital.
 
The calibration will consider all the elements of the Committee's reform package and will not be conducted on a piecemeal basis.
 
The fully calibrated set of standards will be developed by the end of 2010 to be phased in as financial conditions improve and the economic recovery is assured, with the aim of implementation by end-2012
 
The Committee will put in place appropriate phase-in measures and grandfathering arrangements for a sufficiently long period to ensure a smooth transition to the new standards.
 
We will discuss some important parts of the proposals to strengthen global capital and liquidity regulations with the goal of promoting a more resilient banking sector.

Stress testing

Stress testing is an important risk management tool and this is especially true for counterparty credit risk management.
 
Despite the importance of this tool, the development of stress testing for counterparty credit lags the development of stress testing for market risk or for traditional credit risk.
 
Stress testing of counterparty credit risk faces several difficulties that have hindered its development.
 
The multiplicity of counterparties makes it difficult to develop easily understood stress tests.
 
Furthermore, exposure measures are still developing.

For example, the use of CV
A [Credit Valuation Adjustments] which allows banks to encapsulate credit rating and exposure into a single measure of counterparty credit risk is a recent development.

Fundamentally, counterparty credit stress testing must be done at the individual counterparty level.
 
Lists of counterparty exposures under stress scenarios are the key element of all successful stress testing programs.
 
However, stresses of CVA now allow aggregation to a firm-wide level, as well as joint stresses of counterparty creditworthiness
and exposure.

The Committee is proposing to revise the Basel II text by replacing the existing paragraph 56, Annex 4, of the Basel II text with the following:

Banks must have a comprehensive stress testing program for
counterparty credit risk.
 
The stress testing program must include the following elements:

• Banks must ensure complete trade capture and exposure aggregation across all forms of counterparty credit risk (not just OTC derivatives) at the counterparty-specific level in a sufficient time frame to conduct regular stress testing.

• For all counterparties, banks should produce, at least monthly, exposure stress testing of principal market risk factors (eg, interest rates, FX, equities, credit spreads, and commodity prices) in order to proactively identify, and when necessary, reduce outsized concentrations to specific directional sensitivities.

• Banks should apply multifactor stress testing scenarios and assess material non-directional risks (ie yield curve exposure, basis risks, etc) at least quarterly.
 
Multiple-factor stress tests should, at a minimum, aim to address scenarios in which
 
a) severe economic or market events have occurred;
 
b) broad market liquidity has decreased significantly; and
 
c) the market impact of liquidating positions of a large financial intermediary.
 
These stress tests may be part of firm wide stress testing.

• Stressed market movements have an impact not only on counterparty exposures, but also on the credit quality of counterparties.
 
At least quarterly, banks should conduct stress testing applying stressed conditions to the joint movement of exposures and counterparty creditworthiness.

• Exposure stress testing
—including single factor, multifactor and material non-directional risks— and joint stressing of exposure and creditworthiness should be performed at the counterparty-specific, counterparty group (eg industry and region), and aggregate firm-wide CCR levels.

• Stress tests results should be integrated into regular reporting to senior management.
 
The analysis should capture the largest counterparty-level impacts across the portfolio, material concentrations within segments of the portfolio (within the same industry or region), and relevant portfolio and counterparty specific trends.

• The severity of factor shocks should be consistent with the purpose of the stress test.
 
When evaluating solvency under stress, factor shocks should be severe enough to capture historical extreme market environments and/or extreme but plausible stressed market conditions.
 
The impact of such shocks on capital resources should be evaluated, as well as the impact on capital requirements and earnings.
 
For the purpose of day-to-day portfolio monitoring, hedging, and management of concentrations, banks should also consider
scenarios of
lesser severity and higher probability.

• Banks should consider reverse stress tests to identify extreme, but plausible, scenarios that could result in significant adverse outcomes.

• Senior Management must take a lead role in the integration of stress testing into the risk management framework and risk culture of the firm and ensure that the results are meaningful and proactively used to manage counterparty credit risk.
 
At a minimum, the results of stress testing for significant exposures should be compared to guidelines that express the bank’s risk appetite and elevated for discussion and action when excessive or concentrated risks are present.

Back-testing

Back-testing is the comparison of forecasts to realised outcomes.
 
VaR back-testing is a particular example of testing forecast distributions against realised outcomes whereby a single aspect of the distribution, the 99th percentile, is tested.
 

Strengthening the global capital framework
 
Raising the quality, consistency and transparency of the capital base
 
Introduction

One of the highest priority issues on the Basel Committee’s regulatory reform agenda for the banking sector is the need to strengthen the quality, consistency and transparency of the regulatory capital base.
 
This objective has been endorsed by the FSB and the G20 Leaders.
 
While it is critical that the regulatory capital framework captures the key risks to which a bank and the banking sector are exposed, it is equally important that these risks are backed by a high quality buffer of capital which is capable of absorbing losses
when the risks identified materialise.

The global banking system entered the crisis with capital which was of insufficient quality.
 
Banks had to rebuild their capital bases in the midst of the crisis at the point when it was most difficult to do so.
 
The result was the need for massive government support of the banking sector in many countries and a deepening of the economic downturn.

The existing definition of capital suffers from certain fundamental flaws:

1. Regulatory adjustments generally are not applied to common equity.

These adjustments are currently generally applied to total Tier 1 capital or to a combination of Tier 1 and Tier 2.
 
They are not generally applied to the common equity component of Tier 1.
 
This allows banks to report high Tier 1 ratios, despite the fact that they may have low levels of common equity when considered net of regulatory adjustments.
 
It is this common equity base which best absorbs losses on a going concern basis.

2. There is no harmonised list of regulatory adjustments.
 
The way these adjustments are applied across Basel Committee countries varies substantially, undermining the consistency of the regulatory capital base.

3. Weak transparency.
 
The disclosure provided by banks about their regulatory capital bases is frequently deficient.
 
Often there is insufficient detail on the components of capital, making an accurate assessment of its quality or a meaningful comparison with other banks difficult.
 
Furthermore, reconciliation to the reported accounts is often absent.

These shortcomings resulted in the banking sector entering the crisis with a definition of capital that was neither harmonised nor transparent, and it allowed a number of banks to report high Tier 1 ratios but with low levels of common equity net of regulatory adjustments.
 
As the crisis deepened, banks faced growing losses and write downs which directly reduced the retained earnings component of common equity, calling into question fundamental solvency.
 
Many market participants therefore lost confidence in the Tier 1 measure of capital adequacy.
 
They instead focused on measures such as tangible common equity (which nets out elements like goodwill from common equity, as these are not realisable in insolvency).

The following sections set out proposals to strengthen the definition of capital, focusing on its overall quality, consistency and transparency.
 
These proposals will help ensure that banks move to a higher capital standard that promotes long term stability and sustainable growth.
 
Appropriate grandfathering and transitional arrangements will be established which will ensure that this process is completed without aggravating near term stress.

Rationale and objective

There are certain overarching objectives which have guided the development of the proposed new definition of capital.

Tier 1 capital must help a bank to remain a going concern
 
Common equity is recognised as the highest quality component of capital.
 
It is subordinated to all other elements of funding, absorbs losses as and when they occur, has full flexibility of dividend payments and has no maturity date.
 
It is the primary form of funding which helps ensure that banks remain solvent.
 
The framework must ensure that all instruments included in capital as common stock truly meet the standards intended by the
Committee.
 
There can be no features which add additional leverage or which could cause the condition of the bank to be weakened as a going concern during periods of market stress.

It is critical that for non-common equity elements to be included in Tier 1 capital, they must also absorb losses while the bank remains a going concern.
 
Qualifying instruments must contribute in a meaningful way to ensuring the going concern status of the bank and they must be capable of absorbing losses in practice without exacerbating a bank’s condition in a crisis.
 
Certain innovative features which over time have been introduced to Tier 1 to lower its cost, have done so at the expense of its quality. These elements will need to be phased out.

Furthermore, banks must not over-rely on non-common equity elements of capital and so the extent to which these can be included in Tier 1 capital must be limited.
 
Finally the regime should accommodate the specific needs of non-joint stock companies, such as mutuals and cooperatives, which are unable to issue common stock.

Regulatory adjustments must be applied to the appropriate component of capital

Generally, regulatory adjustments must be applied at the level of common equity.

There are two reasons for this:
 
1) If an element of the balance sheet is of insufficient quality to be included in the calculation of Tier 1 capital, then it is also not adequate to be included in the calculation of its highest quality component: common equity; and
 
2) Regulatory adjustments should be applied to that component of capital which is affected by the recognition of the relevant element on the balance sheet, which is generally retained earnings.
 
Taken together, these measures will help ensure that banks cannot show strong Tier 1 capital ratios while having low levels of tangible common equity.

Regulatory capital must be simple and harmonised across jurisdictions

The number of tiers and sub-tiers of capital must be limited. The definitions of Tier 1 and Tier 2 capital should correspond to capital which absorbs losses on a going concern basis and capital which absorbs losses on a gone concern basis, respectively. In addition, the minimum set of regulatory adjustments must be harmonised internationally.

The components of regulatory capital must be clearly disclosed

Finally, the components of regulatory capital must be clearly disclosed and reconciled with the published financial accounts. This will ensure that market participants and supervisors will be in a position to compare the capital adequacy of banks across
jurisdictions.

Key elements of proposal

Overview

The following key changes to the definition of capital are proposed:

The quality and consistency of the common equity element of Tier 1 capital will be significantly improved, with regulatory adjustments generally applied to this element.

• The required features for instruments to be included in Tier 1 capital outside of the common equity element will be strengthened.

• Tier 2 will be simplified. There will be one set of entry criteria, removing subcategories of Tier 2

• Tier 3 will be abolished to ensure that market risks are met with the same quality of capital as credit and operational risks.

• The transparency of capital will be improved, with all elements of capital required to be disclosed along with a detailed reconciliation to the reported accounts.

• Without prejudging the outcome of the calibration work in 2010, the system of limits applied to elements of capital will be revised to ensure that common equity forms a greater proportion of Tier 1 than is permitted at present.
 
The current limitation on Tier 2 capital (it cannot exceed Tier 1) will be removed and replaced with explicit minimum Tier 1 and total capital requirements.

Tier 1 - common equity less regulatory adjustments

For banks structured as joint stock companies the predominant form of Tier 1 capital must be common shares and retained earnings. Regulatory adjustments will be harmonised internationally and generally applied at the level of common equity.

To ensure their quality and consistency, common shares will need to meet a set of entry criteria before being permitted to be included in the predominant form of Tier 1 capital.
 
These entry criteria will also be used to identify instruments of equivalent quality which non joint stock companies, such as mutuals and cooperatives, can include in the predominant form of Tier 1 capital.

Tier 1 – other elements

To be included in Tier 1, instruments will need to be sufficiently loss absorbent on a going-concern basis.

To be considered loss absorbent on a going concern basis, all instruments included in Tier 1 will, among other things, need to be subordinated, have fully discretionary noncumulative dividends or coupons and neither have a maturity date nor an incentive to
redeem.
 
In addition, as part of the impact assessment, the Committee will consider the appropriate treatment in the non-predominant element of Tier 1 capital of instruments which have tax deductible coupons.

“Innovative” features such as step-ups, which over time have eroded the quality of Tier 1, will be phased out.
 
The use of call options on Tier 1 capital will be subject to strict governance arrangements which ensure that the issuing bank is not expected to exercise a call on a capital instrument unless it is in its own economic interest to do so.
 
Payments on Tier 1 instruments will also be considered a distribution of earnings under the capital conservation buffer proposal (see Section II.4.c.). This will improve their loss absorbency on a going concern basis by increasing the likelihood that dividends and coupons will be cancelled in times of stress.

Tier 2

Tier 2 capital will be simplified. There will be one set of entry criteria, removing subcategories of Tier 2.
 
Under the proposal all Tier 2 capital will need to meet the minimum standard of being subordinated to depositors and general creditors and have an original maturity of at least 5 years.
 
Recognition in regulatory capital will be “amortised” on a straight line basis during the final 5 years to maturity.

Tier 3

Tier 3 capital will be abolished.
 
This will ensure that capital used to meet market risk requirements will be of the same quality of composition as capital used to meet credit and operational risk requirements.

Transparency

To improve transparency and market discipline, banks will be required to disclose the following:

• A full reconciliation of regulatory capital elements back to the balance sheet in the audited financial statements;

• Separate disclosure of all regulatory adjustments;

• A description of all limits and minima, identifying the positive and negative elements of capital to which the limits and minima apply;

• A description of the main features of capital instruments issued; and

• Banks which disclose ratios involving components of regulatory capital (eg “Equity Tier 1”, “Core Tier 1” or “Tangible Common Equity” ratios) to accompany these with a comprehensive explanation of how these ratios are calculated.

In addition to the full transparency requirements, a bank will need to make available the full terms and conditions of all instruments included in regulatory capital on its website.

The existing requirement for the main features of capital instruments to be easily understood and publically disclosed will be retained.

Limits

The current system of limits is complex and makes the maximum level of Tier 2 capital a function of how much Tier 1 capital the bank has issued. To address this situation the following system of limits and minima will apply:

• Separate explicit minima will be established for the common equity component of Tier 1 (after the application of regulatory adjustments), total Tier 1 and total capital.

• The predominant form of Tier 1 must be its common equity component (after the application of regulatory adjustments).
Strengthening the resilience of the banking sector

• The restriction that Tier 2 cannot exceed Tier 1 will be removed.

The data collected in the impact assessment will be used to calibrate the above minimum required levels and ensure a consistent interpretation of the predominance standard.

Grandfathering and transitional provisions

Given the significant changes proposed to the definition of capital, the Committee recommends that members consider the possibility of allowing the grandfathering of instruments which have already been issued by banks prior to the publication of this
consultative document.
 
The impact assessment will be used to consider recommendations for an appropriate grandfathering period for instruments and an appropriate phase in period for the new capital standards.
 


Detailed proposal
This section sets out the detailed proposed rules which will govern the definition of capital.
 
To give context to these proposals the following box summarises the structure of regulatory capital under the proposed rules.
Proposed harmonised structure of capital

Elements of capital
Total regulatory capital will consist of the sum of the following elements:

1. Tier 1 Capital (going-concern capital)
a. Common Equity
b. Additional Going-Concern Capital

2. Tier 2 Capital (gone-concern capital)
For each of the three categories above (1a, 1b and 2) there will be a single set of criteria which instruments are required to meet before inclusion in the relevant category.

Limits and minima
All elements above are net of regulatory adjustments and are subject to the following restrictions:

• Common Equity, Tier 1 Capital and Total Capital must always exceed explicit minima of x%, y% and z% of risk-weighted assets, respectively, to be calibrated following the impact assessment.

• The predominant form of Tier 1 Capital must be Common Equity

The detailed proposals are set out in the following sections:

• Criteria governing inclusion in the Common Equity component of Tier 1 capital

• Criteria governing the inclusion in Tier 1 Additional Going Concern Capital

• Criteria governing the inclusion in Tier 2 Capital

• Regulatory adjustments applied to the elements of capital and clarification of the treatment of stock surplus and minority interest

• Limits and minima applied to the components of capital

• Disclosure requirements

Criteria governing inclusion in the Common Equity component of Tier 1

For an instrument to be included in the predominant form of Tier 1 capital it must meet all of the criteria which follow.
 
The vast majority of internationally active banks are structured as joint stock companies18 and for these banks the criteria must be met solely with common shares.
 
In the rare cases where banks need to issue non-voting common shares as part of the predominant form of Tier 1, they must be identical to voting common shares of the issuing bank in all respects except the absence of voting rights.


Criteria for classification as common shares for regulatory capital purposes

1. Represents the most subordinated claim in liquidation of the bank.

2. Entitled to a claim of the residual assets that is proportional with its share of issued capital, after all senior claims have been repaid in liquidation (ie has an unlimited and variable claim, not a fixed or capped claim).

3. Principal is perpetual and never repaid outside of liquidation (setting aside discretionary repurchases or other means of effectively reducing capital in a discretionary manner that is allowable under national law).

4. The bank does nothing to create an expectation at issuance that the instrument will be bought back, redeemed or cancelled nor do the statutory or contractual terms provide any feature which might give rise to such an expectation.

5. Distributions are paid out of distributable items (retained earnings included).
 
The level of distributions are not in any way tied or linked to the amount paid in at issuance and are not subject to a cap (except to the extent that a bank is unable to pay distributions that exceed the level of distributable items).

6. There are no circumstances under which the distributions are obligatory.
 
Non payment is therefore not an event of default.

7. Distributions are paid only after all legal and contractual obligation have been met and payments on more senior capital instruments have been made.
 
This means that there are no preferential distributions, including in respect of other elements classified as the highest quality issued capital.

8. It is the issued capital that takes the first and proportionately greatest share of any losses as they occur.
 
Within the highest quality capital, each instrument absorbs losses on a going concern basis proportionately and pari passu with all the others.

9. The paid in amount is recognised as equity capital (ie not recognised as a liability) for determining balance sheet insolvency.
 
10. The paid in amount is classified as equity under the relevant accounting standards.

11. It is directly issued and paid-up.

12. The paid in amount is neither secured nor covered by a guarantee of the issuer or related entity or subject to any other arrangement that legally or economically enhances the seniority of the claim.

13. It is only issued with the approval of the owners of the issuing bank, either given directly by the owners or, if permitted by applicable law, given by the Board of Directors or by other persons duly authorised by the owners.

14. It is clearly and separately disclosed on the bank’s balance sheet.

Criteria for inclusion in Tier 1 Additional Going Concern Capital

This element of capital allows instruments other than common shares to be included in Tier 1 capital.
 
Their inclusion will be limited by the requirement that the predominant form of Tier 1 Capital must be Common Equity.
 
To maintain the integrity of Tier 1 capital any instrument included must at least:

1. Help the bank avoid payment default through payments being discretionary;

2. Help the bank avoid balance sheet insolvency by the instrument not contributing to liabilities exceeding assets if such a balance sheet test forms part of applicable national insolvency law; and

3. Be able to bear losses while the firm remains a going concern.

Based on this high level view, the following box sets out the proposed minimum set of criteria for an instrument to meet or exceed in order for it to be included in Tier 1 Additional
 
Criteria for inclusion in Tier 1 Additional Going Concern Capital

1. Issued and paid-in

2. Subordinated to depositors, general creditors and subordinated debt of the bank

3. Is neither secured nor covered by a guarantee of the issuer or related entity or other arrangement that legally or economically enhances the seniority of the claim vis-āvis bank creditors

4. Is perpetual, ie there is no maturity date and there are no incentives to redeem

5. May be callable at the initiative of the issuer only after a minimum of five years:

a. To exercise a call option a bank must receive prior supervisory approval; and

b. A bank must not do anything which creates an expectation that the call will be exercised; and

c. Banks must not exercise a call unless:

i. They replace the called instrument with capital of the same or better quality and the replacement of this capital is done at conditions which are sustainable for the income capacity of the bank; or

ii. The bank demonstrates that its capital position is well above the minimum capital requirements after the call option is exercised.

6. Any repayment of principal (eg through repurchase or redemption) must be with prior supervisory approval and banks should not assume or create market expectations that supervisory approval will be given

7. Dividend/coupon discretion:

a. the bank must have full discretion at all times to cancel distributions/payments
 
b. cancellation of discretionary payments must not be an event of default

c. banks must have full access to cancelled payments to meet obligations as they fall due

d. cancellation of distributions/payments must not impose restrictions on the bank except in relation to distributions to common stockholders.

8. Dividends/coupons must be paid out of distributable items

9. The instrument cannot have a credit sensitive dividend feature, that is a dividend/coupon that is reset periodically based in whole or in part on the banking organisation’s current credit standing

10. The instrument cannot contribute to liabilities exceeding assets if such a balance sheet test forms part of national insolvency law.

11. Instruments classified as liabilities must have principal loss absorption through either

(i) conversion to common shares at an objective pre-specified trigger point or
 
(ii) a write-down mechanism which allocates losses to the instrument at a pre-specified trigger point.
 
The write-down will have the following effects:

a. Reduce the claim of the instrument in liquidation;

Strengthening the resilience of the banking sector

b. Reduce the amount re-paid when a call is exercised; and

c. Partially or fully reduce coupon/dividend payments on the instrument.

12. Neither the bank nor a related party over which the bank exercises control or significant influence can have purchased the instrument, nor can the bank directly or indirectly have funded the purchase of the instrument

13. The instrument cannot have any features that hinder recapitalisation, such as provisions that require the issuer to compensate investors if a new instrument is issued at a lower price during a specified time frame

14. If the instrument is not issued out of an operating entity or the holding company in the consolidated group (eg a special purpose vehicle – “SPV”), proceeds must be immediately available without limitation to an operating entity or the holding
company in the consolidated group in a form which meets or exceeds all of the other criteria for inclusion in Tier 1 Additional Going Concern Capital

Additional requirements

• The criteria above will also apply to instruments which appear in the consolidated accounts as minority interest.

• This element of capital will be net of the appropriate corresponding deductions related to holding of non-common equity capital instruments in other financial institutions.
 


Criteria for inclusion in Tier 2 (gone concern capital)
 
The objective of Tier 2 is to provide loss absorption on a gone-concern basis.
 
Based on this objective, the following sets out the proposed minimum set of criteria for an instrument to meet or exceed in order for it to be included in Tier 2 capital.

Criteria for inclusion in Tier 2 Capital

1. Issued and paid-in

2. Subordinated to depositors and general creditors of the bank

3. Is neither secured nor covered by a guarantee of the issuer or related entity or other arrangement that legally or economically enhances the seniority of the claim vis-āvis depositors and general bank creditors

4. Maturity:

a. minimum original maturity of at least 5 years

b. recognition in regulatory capital in the remaining 5 years before maturity will be amortised on a straight line basis

c. there are no incentives to redeem

5. May be callable at the initiative of the issuer only after a minimum of five years:

a. To exercise a call option a bank must receive prior supervisory approval; and

b. A bank must not do anything which creates an expectation that the call will be exercised; and

c. Banks must not exercise a call unless:

i. They replace the called instrument with capital of the same or better quality and the replacement of this capital is done at conditions which are sustainable for the income capacity of the bank; or

ii. The bank demonstrates that its capital position is well above the minimum capital requirements after the call option is exercised.

6. The investor must have no rights to accelerate the repayment of future scheduled payments (coupon or principal), except in bankruptcy and liquidation

7. The instrument may not have a credit sensitive dividend feature, that is a dividend that is reset periodically based in whole or in part on the banking organisation’s current credit standing

8. The bank or a related party cannot have knowingly purchased, or directly or indirectly have funded the purchase of, the instrument

9. If the instrument is not issued out of an operating entity or the holding company in the consolidated group (eg an SPV), proceeds must be immediately available without limitation to an operating entity or the holding company in the consolidated
group in a form which meets or exceeds all of the other criteria for inclusion in Tier 2 Capital

Additional requirements
• These criteria will also apply to instruments which appear in the consolidated accounts as minority interest.

• This element of capital will be net of the appropriate corresponding deductions related to holding of non-common equity capital instruments in other financial institutions.

In addition to the Tier 1 and Tier 2 criteria set out in the sections above, the Committee continues to review the role that contingent capital, convertible capital instruments and instruments with write-down features should play in a regulatory capital
framework, both in the context of the entry criteria for regulatory capital and their use as buffers over the minimum requirement.
 
The Committee will discuss concrete proposals in this area at its July 2010 meeting

The Committee would welcome feedback on whether the safeguards introduced on the use of call options will avoid the problem evident in the crisis that in some jurisdictions banks felt compelled to exercise call options, due to the potential negative market reaction that would have resulted if the call was not exercised.
 
The Committee would also welcome views on whether additional safeguards such as a lock-in mechanism is necessary to ensure
that Tier 2 capital does not need to be repaid during a period of stress.
 


Counterparty Credit Risk (CCR)
 
[Counterparty credit risk is the risk that the counterparty to a transaction could default before the final settlement of the transaction's cash flows.
 
An economic loss would occur if the transactions or portfolio of transactions with the counterparty has a positive economic value at the time of default.
 
Unlike a firm’s exposure to credit risk through a loan, where the exposure to credit risk is unilateral and only the lending bank faces the risk of loss, CCR creates a bilateral risk of loss: the market value of the transaction can be positive or negative to either counterparty to the transaction.
 
The market value is uncertain and can vary over time with the movement of underlying market factors]

(a) Introduction
In its review of the treatment of counterparty credit risk (CCR), the Committee engaged in a wide-ranging effort to ascertain areas where capital requirements for CCR need to be strengthened.
 
In conducting this review, the Committee carefully considered:

• areas where the current treatment did not adequately capitalise for the risks during the crisis;

• the provision of incentives to move bi-lateral OTC derivative contracts to multilateral clearing through central counterparties;

• the provision of incentives to reduce operational risk arising from inadequate margining practices, back-testing and stress testing; and

• whether the changes would contribute to reducing procyclicality.

(b) Key problems identified
The Committee
identified several areas where capital for CCR proved to be inadequate.

Some of the concerns about the capital treatment of CCR have broader consequences and the resulting recommendations may, in some cases, affect areas outside of counterparty credit risk.

In these cases, counterparty credit risk was where the problems were most apparent.

More specifically, the Committee has determined that the regulatory capital treatment for counterparty credit risk was insufficient in the following areas:

• During the recent market crisis, a key observation was that defaults and deteriorations in the creditworthiness of trading counterparties occured precisely at the time when market volatilities, and therefore counterparty exposures, were higher
than usual.

Thus, observed generalised wrong-way risk was not adequately incorporated into the framework.

• Mark-to-market losses due to credit valuation adjustments (CVA) were not directly capitalised.

Roughly two-thirds of CCR losses were due to CVA losses and only about one-third were due to actual defaults.

The current framework addresses CCR as a default and credit migration risk, but does not fully account for market value
losses short of default.

• Large financial institutions were more interconnected than currently reflected in the capital framework.

As a result, when markets entered the downturn, banks’ counterparty exposure to other financial firms also increased.

The evidence suggests that the asset values of financial firms are, on a relative basis, more correlated than those of non-financial firms.

As such, this higher degree of correlation with the market needs to be reflected in the asset value correlations.

The Committee, based on its empirical work, found evidence that asset value correlations were at least 25% higher for financial firms than for non-financial firms.

• The close-out period for replacing trades with a counterparty with large netting sets or netting sets consisting of complex trades or illiquid collateral extended beyond the horizon required for the capital calculations.

• Initial margining typically was very low at the start of the crisis and increased rapidly during the turmoil.

This had a destabilising effect on many market participants and sometimes caused or precipitated defaults.

Capital based on Effective expected positive exposure (EPE) did not provide sufficient incentive for adequate initial margins to be required at all points of the cycle.

Central Counterparties (CCPs) were not widely used to clear trades.

• Securitisations were treated as if they had the same risk exposure as a similarly rated corporate debt instrument.

In the aftermath of the crisis, securitisations have continued to exhibit much higher price volatility than similarly rated corporate debt.

Under the Basel framework, the standardised haircuts currently treat corporate debt and securitisations in the same manner.

The crisis also revealed a number of shortcomings in banks’ risk management of counterparty credit exposures, including in particular the areas of back-testing, stress testing and monitoring of wrong way risk.

• Back-testing: The difficulties in statistical interpretation of back-testing results for counterparty credit risk suggest that many firms did not appropriately consider problems that were identified by back-testing.

The use of models with poor backtesting results contributed to an underestimation of actual losses.

• Stress testing: Stress testing of counterparty credit risk was not comprehensive;

was run infrequently, sometimes on an ad hoc basis; and, in many banks, provided inadequate coverage of counterparties or the associated risks.

• Wrong way risk: Transactions with counterparties, such as the financial guarantors, whose credit quality is highly correlated with the exposure amount, contributed to the losses during the crisis.

• Use of own estimates of Alpha:

Where Alpha is set using an own estimate of economic capital (numerator) to economic capital based on EPE (denominator),
there can be significant variation in such estimates arising from the mis-specification of the models used for the numerator, especially for exposures with non-linear risk profiles.


Wrong-way risk

Wrong-way risk is typically defined as an exposure to a counterparty that is adversely correlated with the credit quality of that counterparty.

Wrong way risk arises when there is a positive expected correlation between EAD and PD to a given counterparty.

There are two types of wrong-way risk, specific wrong-way risk and general wrong-way risk.

Specific wrong-way risk typically arises from poorly constructed transactions.

For example, consider a counterparty that provides its own shares as collateral.

A long put option position on that counterparty’s shares would put the bank at risk.

A sharp drop in counterparty share price would increase the exposure to that counterparty at the same time the ability of the counterparty to meet its obligation decreases.

General wrong-way risk is a term used to describe all other possible sources of positive correlation between an exposure and the probability of default.

During the recent crisis, there was significant evidence of banks’ being exposed to substantial wrong-way risk, particularly arising from the purchase of credit protection via credit default swaps from monoline insurers.

In periods of stress, as correlations increase, general wrong-way risk will present a problem for risk models.

Regulations must ensure that banks’ risk models properly accounting for the possibility of increased general wrong-way risk that may accompany a period of stress.


 
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